Moving directions of hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones

Forecast tools at weather.us

Tropical cyclones, referred to as hurricanes here in the Western Hemisphere, are extremely impactful events. They bring strong winds, abnormally high tides (storm surge), and torrential rain that can lead to flooding even far from the coast. Predicting where they will form, where they will track, and how strong they will be is extremely important! We have lots of tools to help you do this at weather.us.

If a cyclone is forecast to form, the next step is to see where it will go and how strong it will be. These maps above show you a range of possible outcomes in both track (lines) and intensity (color of dots). If the lines are clustered close together, you can have high confidence in the track forecast. If all the dots of the same time are a similar color, you can have high confidence in the intensity forecast. A wider spread between ensemble members indicates lower forecast confidence. Click on any of the maps to go directly to that parameter in our main model interface for better zooming options.

Model maps, gusts

Not seeing anything on the EPS maps? Tropical development is likely not imminent in that case, but still could happen in the longer range. Focus on sharp boundaries where winds are converging. These boundaries can act as the “seed” disturbances that eventually grow into fully formed cyclones. If there are no boundaries, or only very weak boundaries, it’s pretty safe to assume that no tropical cyclones are likely to form soon.

Forecast hurricanes East Coast, Florida and Caribbean

HRRR maps United States
NAM maps United States
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ICON maps United States
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These maps show wind forecasts in the western Atlantic. During hurricane season, it’s important to keep checking back because new disturbances could develop at any time. Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins on June first and ends on November 30th.

If you do see a disturbance, check satellite imagery to see if the system has any thunderstorm activity is associated with the system. If there are no thunderstorms, there can’t be a tropical cyclone. If you have a disturbance, and there are persistent thunderstorms near the center, you might need to worry about tropical cyclone development! Check the following satellite images Super HD (day only), Top Alert and Water Vapor.

Forecast hurricanes Gulf of Mexico

HRRR maps United States
NAM maps United States
ECMWF maps United States
GFS maps United States
ICON maps United States
ACCESS G maps United States

These maps show wind forecasts in the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, it’s important to keep checking back because new disturbances could develop at any time. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean begins on June first and ends on November 30th.

If you do see a disturbance, check satellite imagery to see if the system has any thunderstorm activity is associated with the system. If there are no thunderstorms, there can’t be a tropical cyclone. If you have a disturbance, and there are persistent thunderstorms near the center, you might need to worry about tropical cyclone development! Check the following satellite images Super HD (day only), Top Alert and Water Vapor.

Forecast typhoons Philippines, Hongkong, Taiwan

Swiss HD maps United States
ECMWF maps United States
GFS maps United States
ICON maps United States
ACCESS G maps United States

These maps show wind forecasts in the Northwest Pacific. During typhoon season, it’s important to keep checking back because new disturbances could develop at any time. While most typhoons in the Northwestern Pacific form during the main season between June and November, they can occur during any month of the year if conditions are sufficiently favorable.

Check the following satellite images Super HD (day only), Top Alert and Water Vapor.

Forecast typhoons Japan and Korea

ECMWF maps United States
GFS maps United States
ICON maps United States
ACCESS G maps United States

These maps show wind forecasts in the Northwest Pacific near Japan and Korea. During typhoon season, it’s important to keep checking back because new disturbances could develop at any time. While most typhoons in the Northwestern Pacific form during the main season between June and November, they can occur during any month of the year if conditions are sufficiently favorable.

Check the following satellite images Super HD (day only), Top Alert und Water Vapor.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Once a cyclone has formed, it is classified into one of seven categories by the National Hurricane Center based on its maximum 1 minute sustained wind. This scale only takes into account a storm’s wind and should not be used as a measure of the system’s overall severity. Very large Category 1-2 storms such as Sandy and Florence have wreaked much more havoc than smaller storms with a small pocket of stronger winds near the center that give them a higher category. Remember, most deaths from tropical cyclones come from flooding due to the storm surge and torrential rains that can spread hundreds of miles inland from where the storm comes ashore.