This map displays the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones according to the ECMWF’s EPS (ensemble prediction system). The color of each dot corresponds to the forecast intensity of a given tropical system at a given time by a given ensemble member. Use this map to get a sense of forecast uncertainty. If all the track lines are clustered closely together, you can have a high degree of confidence in the track forecast. If all the colors are the same, you can have a high degree of confidence in the intensity forecast. Do note however that the ensembles can underestimate the intensity of a very strong storm, especially in the near term.
