This product displays output from the German Rapid Update model (COSMO D2). This model is updated every 3 hours and, in addition to its high resolution output, also has a suite of ensemble members to add additional confidence to the forecast. Ensemble members are created by running the same model with slightly different initial conditions. This allows for a more complete picture of all the possible outcomes. The Rapid Update ensemble suite has 20 members in addition to the operational model. If each of the 20 members is in good agreement about the forecast, you can have high confidence in its output while if the members are in disagreement, there is more uncertainty. The Rapid Update model and its ensembles are available out to 27 hours with one of the morning runs extended out 45 hours.